UEFA Champions League odds, predictions: Two best bets for Tuesday’s slate

After a three-month break, the European club competition returns to action Tuesday.

The first eight games of the group stage will kick off tomorrow, followed by a further eight games on Wednesday. The highlights tomorrow are Sevilla-Manchester City, Celtic-Real Madrid, and RB Salzburg-AC Milan.

Where should soccer fans look for their opportunities on Tuesday? Without further delay, I have my top bets for tomorrow. BetMGM gives all odds and they are reflective at the time of writing.

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They don’t stand a chance against their Matchday One opponents.

One of the most potent attacks in Europe arrives at this fixture with Paris Saint-Germain. The team has scored 24 goals off of 39 chances, per fotmob.com. In the two league matches against Lille and Monaco, Paris Saint-Germain created 14 big scoring chances and conceded only four total.

The Old Lady enters this match with a negative regression candidate, despite the fact that it is the only team that has yet to lose this season. The side has a + goal differential and a + big scoring chances differential through five league matches. On the road, they have a +0 goal differential and a -2 big chances differential. Expect the metrics to catch up to them against a good attack.

Sevilla was one of the luckiest clubs in Europe last season, so it’s not surprising that this is a fade of the Manchester City leg. It posted a +23 goal differential in La Liga. It decided to sell both of its starting centre-halves this summer and was absolutely boat-raced over the weekend against Barcelona at home.

I rate City a positive regression candidate because it has a +14 goal differential and +21 big scoring chances differential in the premier league. Expect it to fleece this Sevilla defense and cruise to three points given they lead the Premier League in big scoring chances.

Milan’s attack should work in this match, but don’t count out the Salzburg attack either.

Salzburg was held goalless only once and generated 1.48 expected goals per 90 minutes in four group matches. Included in that sample is a home knockout match in which Die Roten Bullen produced 1.16 expected goals and one big scoring chance against a stout Bavaria defense.

Bettors will find that Salzburg failed to surpass one expected goal only twice in its last 18 group stage matches.

The hosts will do no worse than get on the board once. I expect the defense to struggle against Milan’s attack. In the two matches against Atalanta and Inter Milan, the Rosoneri have generated five big scoring chances and 1.55 xG per 90 minutes. Milan will have its fair share of chances since I rate those defenses ahead of Salzburg.

Salzburg only kept a single clean sheet last season because of its offensive success. You can back this single-game bet up to -125.

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